Wind energy, generated by winds, is fast becoming an important renewable energy resource, as well as a stable, profitable, and low-risk investment worldwide. Based on available figures from 11 of the top 15 countries representing over 80% of the world market, World Wind Energy Association (WWEA) recorded 5374 megawatts (MW) of new installed capacity in the first quarter of 2009, equaling an increase of 23% compared with last year in the same countries. WWEA keeps its previous prevision of a total installed capacity of 152,000 MW worldwide by the end of 2009, which will mean a new record of over 30,000 MW of newly installed capacity within one year. This represents a market growth of 25% compared with last year.
By comparison with other renewable energy sources, wind energy is associated with one of the lowest costs of electricity production and the largest resource availability. Because of its technical maturity and efficiency, wind energy has been widely regarded as one of the most prominent energy resources in the future. The intermittent and volatile nature of winds poses several problems to wind power generation. One of the largest problems, as compared to conventionally generated electricity, is that wind power is dependent on volatile wind. Wind volatility occurs on all time scales, from milliseconds to days, and wind volatility impacts both individual turbine control and the integration of wind power into an electrical grid network. Wind volatility poses various challenges to the wind energy industry.
Many of the challenges posed by wind volatility are connected to the requirements for forecasting wind energy production with a certain degree of accuracy. Increases in the accuracy of wind energy forecasts reduce the requirement for backup energy, resulting in increased power grid reliability, as well as significant monetary savings. Accurate prediction of wind power is crucial, both for technical and financial reasons. For example, wind farm operators need the prediction of wind power to be accurate to avoid being penalized by the system operator for not generating power as predicted.
The development of forecasting technologies is needed to address these challenges. An immediate requirement is for the development of improved short-term forecasting methods, which are necessary for transmission scheduling and resource allocation. The short-term forecasting methods need to address areas of interest with a greater degree of accuracy and resolution. Of central concern are short term wind energy forecasts in the range of 0-3 hours, for example. This lead time is typical of the time necessary for transmission scheduling and the dispatching of resources to keep the power supply in the grid in line with power demands.